According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), the export price of Vietnam’s 5% broken rice currently remains at $399/MT. It is $228 per ton lower than the average price in 2024. In the coming period, Vietnam’s rice exports will remain under pressure due to declining demand and increasing global supply.
According to VFA, the main reason for the price drop is India’s removal of all restrictions on rice exports. Moreover, India has set its goal to double agricultural export revenue to $100 billion by 2030.
Accordingly, the country plans to export a record 21.5 million tons of rice in 2025, significantly boosting global supply. As India reasserts its dominant position in the global rice trade, other exporting countries will face challenges.
Vietnam’s rice exports
India’s rice production will reach 214.2 million tons in the 2025, according to an forecast. India can reach a high record due to expanding cultivation areas, high yields, and favorable weather conditions.
Meanwhile, many major rice-importing countries have also reduced their import volumes since the beginning of 2025. Specifically, the Philippines’ rice imports dropped by 46.5% to 641,000 tons as of March 13, 2025, compared to 1.2 million tons in early 2024. This decline is attributed to expectations of a bumper harvest. In addition, the government takes efforts to adjust its import strategy in line with domestic production.
Moreover, Japan plans to expand its rice cultivation area by 23,000 hectares in 2025. Accordingly, total rice cultivation area will reach 1.282 million hectares. All of these will make an effort to address recent supply shortages and rising rice prices.
Vietnamese source: https://nhandan.vn/xuat-khau-gao-tiep-tuc-chiu-ap-luc-tu-nguon-cung-post870476.html