In the first months of 2026, Vietnam’s coffee exports continued to increase in volume. However, export value declined due to a sharp drop in average export prices. Amid ongoing market volatility, Vietnamese coffee industry is likely to regain its growth momentum. This recovery is supported by a price rebound in May 2026 and a stronger push toward deep processing and value-added products.
On May 27, 2026, global coffee markets recorded strong gains across both the New York and London exchanges. Robusta prices continued their upward momentum. They officially surpassed the USD 3,500 per ton mark amid growing concerns over supply conditions in key producing countries.
At the close of trading on May 26 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London, the July 2026 robusta contract rose by USD 63, reaching USD 3,519 per ton. The September 2026 contract also increased by USD 67. It settled at USD 3,377 per ton, with trading volumes remaining relatively high.
On the ICE Futures U.S. exchange in New York, arabica prices also extended gains. The July 2026 contract rose by 1.65 cents to 274.00 cents per pound. Meanwhile, the September 2026 contract increased by 1.55 cents, reaching 266.35 cents per pound.
According to analysts, the main driver behind the price surge is growing concerns over global supply. This is particularly evident in Vietnam and Brazil, which are the world’s two largest coffee producers.
Vietnamese coffee
In Vietnam, erratic weather patterns, drought risks, and the potential impacts of El Niño have raised concerns about the outlook for the 2026–2027 crop season. Meteorological reports show uneven rainfall distribution across the Central Highlands. They also indicate localized drought conditions that could affect both yield and quality of Vietnamese coffee. These factors have encouraged speculative buying on the London exchange, contributing to stronger gains in robusta prices.
In Brazil, although production is likely to remain high this year, actual harvesting progress has been significantly slower than in previous seasons. According to a report by Safras & Mercado, as of May 20, robusta harvest progress had reached only 13%. This compares with 20% in the same period last year and a five-year average of 22%. For arabica, harvesting reached just 7%, which is below last year’s 9%. Brokerage firm StoneX estimated that only around 14% of Brazil’s total crop had been harvested. This compares with a historical average of 21% for the same period.
Domestically, coffee prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands rose by an additional VND 700 per kilogram on May 27 compared with the previous day. This brought prices back above the VND 88,000 per kilogram level.
Experts note that if London futures continue their upward trajectory, supported by technical factors and renewed demand from exporters, domestic coffee prices could stabilize. They are likely to consolidate around VND 88,000 per kilogram in the coming sessions.
Vietnamese coffee farm
Vietnamese coffee exports showed signs of slowing in April 2026 after a strong growth period earlier in the year. This slowdown was driven by easing global prices and more moderate import demand in some key markets. Although export volumes continued to increase, export value declined significantly due to lower average export prices.
According to Vietnam Customs data, the country exported approximately 190,000 tons of coffee in April 2026. This generated nearly USD 823 million in revenue. Compared with the same period last year, export volume increased by 9.2%. However, export value fell by 17.9%.
In the first four months of 2026, Vietnam exported about 782,000 tons of coffee, earning USD 3.58 billion. Compared with the same period in 2025, export volume rose by 11.7%. However, export value declined by 9.8%. These figures indicate that while the sector continues to expand in terms of volume, export earnings are under pressure from declining global coffee prices.
The main reason for the drop in value is the sharp decline in average export prices. In the first four months of 2026, Vietnam’s average coffee export price stood at around USD 4,575 per ton. This was down 19.4% year-on-year. After a prolonged period of high prices in 2025, global coffee markets entered a correction phase. Supplies from major producing countries gradually improved, while import demand in several markets remained weaker than expected.
Despite these challenges, Vietnamese coffee continues to maintain a strong position in key export markets. The European Union remains the largest destination. Positive growth was recorded in traditional markets such as Germany, Italy, and Belgium. This reflects the stable competitiveness of Vietnamese coffee, particularly robusta, in the European market.
Vietnamese coffee beans
Exports of Vietnam’s coffee to China also recorded strong growth in both volume and value. This reflects rapidly expanding coffee consumption in the region. Rising demand in China is increasingly viewed as a major opportunity for Vietnamese coffee exporters.
The United States market also maintained stable import demand. Although growth was not particularly strong, shipment volumes remained solid. This indicates steady coffee consumption in the U.S.
At the same time, the global shift toward green and sustainable consumption is creating new requirements for Vietnam’s coffee industry. Experts emphasize the need to develop high-quality coffee, certified sustainable products, transparent traceability systems, and compliance with sustainability standards. These factors are essential to enhance competitiveness in premium markets.
In the context of continued volatility in the global coffee market, a transition toward higher quality and increased value-added processing is widely seen as a key strategy. It is essential for ensuring sustainable long-term growth for Vietnam’s coffee industry.
Vietnamese source: http://www.hoinongdan.org.vn/nha-nong-can-biet/gia-ca-phe-phuc-hoi-xuat-khau-ky-vong-lay-lai-da-tang-truong-380899
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