Ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East is posing substantial challenges to the cashew industry. As a result, Vietnam’s cashew industry has revised its export target for this year downward to USD 5 billion.
According to data from the Customs Department, Vietnam exported 74,107 tons of cashew nuts in May 2026. Accordingly, these Vietnamese cashew exports generated revenue of USD 528.54 million. This represented an increase of 7.7% in volume and 8.2% in value compared with the previous month. However, compared with the same period in 2025, export volume declined by 8.6% while export value fell by 4%.
In the first five months of 2026, Vietnam exported 268,408 tons of cashew nuts, earning USD 1.87 billion. This represented a decline of 3% in volume and 0.3% in value compared with the same period last year.
Vietnam’s cashew industry
According to the Vietnam Cashew Association (VINACAS), after three consecutive years of double-digit growth, Vietnam’s cashew industry entered 2026 with high expectations. However, escalating conflicts in the Middle East have disrupted the sector’s export outlook.
During the first two months of 2026, export activities proceeded relatively smoothly. However, from mid-March onward, as tensions in the Middle East intensified, exports to the region began to decline sharply. In March alone, shipments to the Middle East fell by approximately 50%. By April, virtually no new orders were being signed, and by the end of May, trade activities with the region had almost come to a standstill.
According to VINACAS, disruptions to logistics networks, difficulties in maritime transportation, and the cautious stance of importers have caused trading activities to slow dramatically. As a result, Vietnam’s cashew exports in the first four months of 2026 decreased by about 3.8% compared with the same period of the previous year.
Vietnamese cashew exports
The Middle East is currently the third-largest export market for Vietnam’s cashew industry, behind only the United States and China. In 2025, the region accounted for approximately 12% of the industry’s total export turnover. Therefore, the downturn in this market has had a significant impact on Vietnamese cashew exporters.
In addition to market-related challenges, cashew processing and exporting enterprises are facing mounting cost pressures. Rising ocean freight rates and warehousing expenses, coupled with declining orders, have significantly squeezed profit margins. Many companies continue to maintain trading activities in an effort to retain customers, but business performance remains far from satisfactory.
Vietnamese cashew tin boxes
Capital constraints have also become a major concern. Many enterprises are experiencing shortages of working capital, while lending rates remain relatively high. At the same time, increasingly stringent requirements regarding environmental protection, sustainability, food safety, and traceability in key markets such as the European Union (EU) and China have further increased compliance costs.
In response to these challenges, VINACAS has revised its 2026 export target downward to USD 5 billion. This compares with more than USD 5.4 billion achieved in 2025. The new target reflects a cautious outlook and represents a decline of approximately 8–10% from the previous year.
Vietnamese cashew factory
The association has also urged relevant ministries and agencies to coordinate with shipping lines and logistics providers. This would help reduce transportation and storage costs for businesses. In addition, it has called for appropriate credit support measures, including lower interest rates, debt rescheduling, and working-capital assistance for Vietnamese exporting enterprises.
However, to ensure the industry’s long-term sustainable development, VINACAS believes that Vietnam should accelerate the negotiation and implementation of trade agreements with African countries. This would facilitate the import of raw cashew materials. At the same time, replanting programs and the development of domestic raw-material growing areas should be implemented as soon as possible. These measures would gradually reduce dependence on imported raw cashew nuts and strengthen the competitiveness of Vietnam’s cashew industry in the years ahead.
Vietnamese source: https://doanhnghieptiepthi.vn/nganh-dieu-ha-muc-tieu-xuat-khau-xuong-5-ty-usd-161260621223340737.htm
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