According to the latest report from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), the Oryza White Rice Index (WRI) closed the final week of June 2026 at USD 432 per tonne. This was up USD 4 per tonne from the previous week and USD 15 per tonne higher than a month earlier. The increase reflects a recovery trend in prices of rice exports from Vietnam.
Meanwhile, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts abundant global rice supplies for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Production is likely to reach 545 million tonnes, while consumption is likely at around 543 million tonnes. Global rice trade is likely to hit a record 62 million tonnes, with ending stocks rising to 199 million tonnes. This outlook is mostly the result of abundant supplies from India.
Weather conditions remain a key variable affecting the global rice market. El Niño is likely to strengthen in the second half of 2026, while a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could intensify drought conditions across Southeast Asia. This could potentially affect rice production in several countries across the region.
Rice exports from Vietnam
Meanwhile, the gradual restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has eased pressure on fertilizer and energy supply chains. Global urea and crude oil prices have shown signs of softening, helping reduce agricultural input costs. However, freight and marine insurance costs remain elevated.
Among major importing countries, efforts to strengthen food security continue to gain momentum. Indonesia currently holds rice reserves exceeding 5 million tonnes, the highest level in its history. The country is likely to avoid rice imports in 2026 thanks to a sharp increase in domestic production. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Indonesia has become Southeast Asia’s largest rice producer and the world’s fourth largest.
Meanwhile, the Philippines is likely to remain a major importer of rice exports from Vietnam. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts rice imports of around 5.2 million tonnes in the 2026/2027 marketing year to offset domestic supply shortages. However, the Philippine government continues to implement price stabilization measures and expand domestic procurement. These efforts are likely to reduce reliance on imports.
Among the major rice exporters, India continues to strengthen its market position, with 5% broken rice priced at around USD 351 per tonne. The country maintains a competitive advantage thanks to abundant supplies and more than 1.15 million tonnes of rice awaiting export. Meanwhile, the price of Thailand’s 5% broken rice has risen to USD 482 per tonne, while Pakistan’s stands at approximately USD 403 per tonne.
Vietnamese rice
The global market presents both opportunities and challenges for rice exports from Vietnam. Import demand remains strong in many markets, but competitive pressure from India’s lower-priced supplies is likely to weigh on Vietnam’s export prospects. In addition, the growing trend toward food self-sufficiency in many countries may further affect export performance.
According to the Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection under the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, as of June 22, farmers in the Mekong Delta had planted more than 1.076 million hectares of the Summer–Autumn rice crop. This was equivalent to nearly 87% of the planned area. Approximately 123,000 hectares had been harvested, with output estimated at around 765,000 tonnes. This provides a stable supply for exports in the coming months.
Against the backdrop of continued volatility in the global rice market, Vietnamese rice exporters are advised to closely monitor weather developments, trade policies, and demand in key markets. They should proactively adjust procurement, processing, and export plans. At the same time, they should improve product quality and diversify export destinations to maintain their competitiveness.
Vietnamese source: https://congthuong.vn/nguon-cung-doi-dao-xuat-khau-gao-buoc-vao-cuoc-dua-moi-466152.html
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